Cambodia Security Report — July 25, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: July 18 — July 25, 2026.

Executive Summary

During the period of July 18-25, 2026, Cambodia demonstrated a complex and active security posture, marked by intensified diplomatic engagements with both China and the United States, alongside persistent efforts to address internal and regional security challenges. High-level visits to China by Cambodian leaders reaffirmed the "ironclad friendship" and expanded security cooperation, while simultaneous dialogues with the US at the Pentagon and ASEAN meetings signaled a significant strengthening of defense ties, including the planned resumption of joint military exercises. Domestically, Cambodia continued its robust crackdown on online scam operations, leading to numerous arrests and deportations, and announced the enforcement of military conscription from 2026, partly in response to ongoing border tensions with Thailand. The unresolved land and maritime border disputes with Thailand remained a critical flashpoint, with Cambodia pursuing international conciliation while accusing Thailand of continued aggression.

Key Security Developments

• Intensified Cambodia-China Diplomatic and Security Cooperation
  Prime Minister Hun Manet's visit to China from July 15-17, 2026, following Senate President Hun Sen's visit in late June, solidified the "ironclad friendship" between the two nations. Discussions focused on expanding cooperation in areas such as combating transnational crime, responding to cyberthreats, and strengthening national defense capacity, alongside significant economic initiatives like the Industrial Development Corridor and the Fish and Rice Corridor. This frequent high-level engagement aims to reduce misperception, strengthen political confidence, and directly manage sensitive issues.

• Strengthening Cambodia-US Defense and Security Ties
  The 4th Cambodia-US Defence Policy Dialogue (DPD) was held in Washington, D.C., on July 22, where both nations reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral defense cooperation. Key areas of focus included military training, joint exercises, professional development, and capacity building, with plans for the "Angkor Sentinel" joint military exercise to resume in 2027. This dialogue marks a significant reset in defense relations, following the US decision in 2025 to lift restrictions on defense cooperation.

• High-Level US-Cambodia Law Enforcement Cooperation
  Prime Minister Hun Manet met with FBI Director Kash Patel at the Peace Palace on July 22, pledging closer security cooperation to combat transnational crime, drug trafficking, and cyber-enabled fraud. Patel praised Cambodia's recent efforts against online scam operations and emphasized the global nature of cyber-enabled fraud, stressing the need for strong international cooperation.

• Enforcement of Military Conscription from 2026
  Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet announced that the government will begin enforcing military conscription from 2026, marking the first implementation of a 2006 law. The mandatory service for men aged 18-30 will initially be 18 months, with plans to extend it to 24 months. This move is partly attributed to rising border tensions with Thailand and aims to address shortages in junior ranks and maintain a ready military force.

• Continued Crackdown on Online Scams and Cybercrime
  Cambodia continued its nationwide campaign against online scams, with a progress report endorsed on July 24 revealing that 737 scam centers were raided between June 2025 and June 2026. Over 21,100 foreign nationals of 38 nationalities have been deported, and 2,773 suspects referred to courts in 268 cases. Prime Minister Hun Manet described the campaign as a significant success but stressed the need for uninterrupted enforcement.

• International Conference on Combating Online Scams
  Cambodia announced it will host an international conference on combating online scams in Phnom Penh from September 23-24, 2026. The conference, themed "Together Towards Disrupting the Chain and Ending Online Scams," aims to strengthen international cooperation and restore Cambodia's international reputation. It is expected to involve ministerial-level leaders from 16 countries, senior technical officials from 14 countries, and representatives from six international organizations, including the US FBI and Chinese authorities.

• Persistent Cambodia-Thailand Land Border Tensions
  Tensions along the Cambodia-Thailand land border remain high, with Cambodia's Minister of Information Neth Pheaktra highlighting July 24, 2025, as the start of "Thai armed aggression" and accusing Thai forces of continued occupation and violation of the December 2025 ceasefire. Laos has deployed two officers to the ASEAN Observer Team (AOT) to monitor the situation, led by the Philippines. China has offered to play a "constructive role" in finding a solution through dialogue.

• Maritime Border Dispute with Thailand Enters UNCLOS Conciliation
  Cambodia initiated a compulsory conciliation process under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to resolve its long-running maritime boundary dispute with Thailand. This followed Thailand's unilateral termination of a 2001 agreement. Both nations have mutually agreed to extend the timeline for appointing the Conciliation Commission's chairperson, signaling a shared desire for a rigorous appointment process.

• Pause in Golden Dragon Military Exercise with China
  For the first time in three years, the "Golden Dragon" military exercise between China and Cambodia did not take place on its usual schedule by the end of May, leading to speculation of a suspension. Defense analysts suggest this could indicate a "strategic recalibration" of Cambodia's ties with China, influenced by debt trap issues and the US pivot towards ASEAN.

• ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting Engagement
  Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn attended the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila from July 18-23. Discussions covered regional cooperation, energy security, and transnational crime, with Cambodia emphasizing the need for deeper regional integration and strategic coordination in response to evolving geopolitical challenges. Prak Sokhonn also co-chaired the ASEAN-US dialogue, urging closer cooperation on trade, investment, and digital transformation.

• Concerns over Political Repression and Human Rights
  Reports indicate an increasingly repressive political landscape in Cambodia, with a significant rise in political prisoners since the 2016 murder of prominent critic Kem Ley. Union leader Chhim Sithar highlighted shrinking freedoms and increased risks for those who voice dissent, with local rights group Licadho documenting at least 125 political prisoners, up from about 30 in 2016.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Cambodia's security developments during this period highlight its strategic balancing act amidst intensifying major power rivalry and persistent regional challenges. The "ironclad friendship" with China continues to be a cornerstone of Cambodia's foreign policy, reinforced by recent high-level visits and expanded cooperation across economic and security sectors. This strong alignment provides Cambodia with significant economic benefits and diplomatic support, particularly in regional forums and on issues like the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute. However, the reported pause in the "Golden Dragon" military exercise with China, if confirmed, could signal a nuanced approach by Phnom Penh to avoid over-reliance and maintain strategic flexibility, potentially influenced by concerns over debt sustainability and the broader US engagement in Southeast Asia.

Concurrently, Cambodia has made notable strides in strengthening its relationship with the United States. The resumption of high-level defense dialogues and the planned return of joint military exercises like "Angkor Sentinel" indicate a thawing of previously strained military ties and a renewed commitment to broader security cooperation. This engagement with the US, including cooperation on transnational crime and cybersecurity, allows Cambodia to diversify its security partnerships and enhance its capabilities, while also projecting an image of non-alignment despite its close ties with China. The US's expressed support for peace efforts in the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute further underscores its constructive role in regional stability.

The Cambodia-Thailand border dispute, both land and maritime, remains a significant regional flashpoint. Cambodia's strong stance, including marking the anniversary of alleged Thai aggression and initiating UNCLOS conciliation for the maritime dispute, underscores the deep-seated nature of these tensions. The involvement of ASEAN (through the Observer Team) and the diplomatic interventions by major powers like China and the US highlight the regional and international concern over potential escalation. The dispute has broader implications for ASEAN's unity and its ability to manage internal conflicts, as well as for the stability of the Gulf of Thailand, a crucial waterway for regional energy resources.

Military and Defense Analysis

Cambodia's military and defense posture is undergoing notable shifts, primarily driven by the decision to enforce mandatory military conscription from 2026. This policy, requiring 18-30 year old males to serve for 18-24 months, is a significant development aimed at increasing troop numbers and reinforcing the army, particularly in light of ongoing border tensions with Thailand. This move suggests a strategic effort to bolster national defense capabilities and readiness, potentially indicating a perception of heightened external threats.

The modernization programs of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) continue to be influenced by its "ironclad friendship" with China, which provides access to defense technology and support for strengthening national defense capacity. However, the reported pause in the "Golden Dragon" joint military exercise with China could suggest a strategic reassessment, possibly to diversify defense partnerships and avoid excessive dependence. Concurrently, the resumption of defense dialogues and planned joint exercises with the United States (Angkor Sentinel in 2027) signals a renewed effort to engage with Western partners, potentially seeking to acquire different capabilities, enhance interoperability, and access professional military education and training programs.

Defense spending trends are likely to see an increase to support the new conscription policy and ongoing modernization efforts. Prime Minister Hun Manet has pledged to "look at increasing" Cambodia's defense budget. The focus on strengthening national defense is explicitly stated as being for territorial protection, not invasion. The combination of mandatory service, continued Chinese support, and renewed US engagement suggests a multi-faceted approach to capability development, aiming for a more robust and resilient military force capable of deterring external threats and managing internal security challenges.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, Cambodia is expected to continue its diplomatic balancing act between China and the United States. High-level engagements with both powers will likely persist, with Cambodia seeking to maximize benefits from both relationships without appearing to take sides definitively. The crackdown on online scams will remain a prominent domestic security focus, culminating in the international conference in Phnom Penh in September. This event will be crucial for Cambodia's international reputation and its efforts to foster broader cooperation against cybercrime. Tensions along the Cambodia-Thailand border are unlikely to fully de-escalate, particularly with Cambodia's continued emphasis on past "aggression" and the ongoing UNCLOS conciliation process for the maritime dispute. The implementation details of the military conscription law will begin to emerge, potentially leading to public discussions and logistical challenges.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The Cambodia-Thailand border remains the most critical flashpoint. Any new incidents, particularly in disputed land areas or maritime zones, could quickly escalate, drawing in regional and international attention. The enforcement of military conscription could also face internal resistance or logistical hurdles, potentially leading to social unrest if not managed transparently and fairly. The ongoing efforts to combat online scams, while positive, carry risks of human rights abuses if not conducted under strict legal oversight, which could draw international criticism. The geopolitical competition between the US and China in Southeast Asia, and Cambodia's position within it, could lead to increased pressure from either side, potentially forcing difficult choices or limiting Cambodia's strategic autonomy.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the progress and outcomes of the UNCLOS conciliation process for the maritime dispute with Thailand, as well as any new reports of incidents or diplomatic exchanges regarding the land border. The level of participation and concrete outcomes from the international conference on online scams in September will be important for assessing Cambodia's commitment and effectiveness in this area. Further details on the implementation of military conscription, including public reception and any amendments to the service period, should be watched closely. The nature and scope of upcoming joint military exercises with both China and the US (e.g., the resumption of Angkor Sentinel) will provide insights into Cambodia's evolving defense strategy and its relationships with major powers. Finally, monitoring reports from human rights organizations regarding political freedoms and the treatment of dissidents will be crucial for understanding the domestic security environment.

Strategic recommendations: Cambodia should prioritize de-escalation mechanisms and confidence-building measures with Thailand, leveraging regional platforms like ASEAN and international mediation efforts to manage border disputes peacefully. Ensuring transparency and accountability in the implementation of military conscription and the crackdown on online scams is vital to maintain public trust and mitigate international criticism. Cambodia should continue to diversify its security partnerships, actively engaging with both China and the US, as well as other regional partners, to enhance its defense capabilities and maintain strategic flexibility. Investing in cybersecurity infrastructure and expertise is crucial, not only for combating online scams but also for protecting critical national infrastructure from evolving cyber threats. Finally, fostering inclusive governance and protecting fundamental freedoms will strengthen national resilience and stability in the long term, reducing internal vulnerabilities that could be exploited by external actors.

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