Indonesia Security Report — September 28, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: September 21 — September 28, 2026.

Executive Summary

Indonesia has demonstrated a highly active and multifaceted security posture from September 21 to September 28, 2026, marked by significant multinational military exercises, robust diplomatic engagements, and a heightened focus on cybersecurity. The nation hosted "Trident Resolve 2026," the largest ASEAN-led defense and disaster response exercise in a decade, involving 19 countries and simulating a major natural disaster in Banten, Western Java. Concurrently, Indonesia deepened its strategic partnerships through high-level dialogues with China and the European Union, while actively promoting global peace and UN reform at the United Nations General Assembly. A critical concern remains the substantial financial losses from cyberattacks, estimated at US$6.2 billion this year, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced digital security measures and legislative action. These developments highlight Indonesia's commitment to strategic autonomy, regional stability, and addressing evolving security challenges through multilateral cooperation.

Key Security Developments

• Military Activities and Exercises: Exercise Trident Resolve 2026 Concludes
  Indonesia successfully hosted "Trident Resolve 2026," the largest ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) framework exercise in a decade, from September 20 to 26, 2026, in Banten, Western Java. The exercise involved approximately 2,200 military personnel and civilian officials from 19 countries, including all 11 ASEAN nations and eight partners (Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the United States). The drills focused on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), cybersecurity, and military medicine, simulating an earthquake, an eruption of Anak Krakatau, and a subsequent tsunami. This exercise significantly bolstered regional interoperability and trust among participating nations in responding to complex emergencies.

• Defense Policy and Strategic Shifts: Enhanced US-Indonesia Partnership
  The conclusion of the "Super Garuda Shield 2026" exercise, which ran from August 31 to September 11, 2026, continued to be a topic of discussion, highlighting the elevated Major Defense Cooperation Partnership between Indonesia and the United States, established in April 2026. This pact emphasizes military modernization, troop training programs, and cooperation on advanced defense measures and next-generation technologies. The exercise involved 4,743 personnel from 21 countries, demonstrating Indonesia's commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities and fostering broader regional security cooperation.

• Diplomatic Relations: Deepening Ties with China
  Indonesia engaged in high-level diplomatic exchanges with China during this period. On September 20, 2026, Zhao Leji, Chairman of China's National People's Congress Standing Committee, met with Ahmad Muzani, Chairman of Indonesia's People's Consultative Assembly, in Beijing to deepen exchanges and cooperation. Subsequently, on September 22, 2026, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Djamari Chaniago urged China to bolster regional stability and peace during China's 77th National Day celebration in Jakarta, reaffirming Indonesia's support for ASEAN centrality. These interactions underscore the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations, encompassing political, security, and economic cooperation.

• Diplomatic Relations: Advancing EU-Indonesia Trade Agreement
  The Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing its finalization, with Indonesia targeting its signing by October 2026 and full implementation by early 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič are scheduled to visit Indonesia in late October or early November for final discussions. This agreement is anticipated to significantly expand market access, boost bilateral investment, and strengthen broader economic relations, offering immediate zero-tariff access to 90 percent of Indonesian goods entering the EU.

• Diplomatic Relations: Indonesia at the UN General Assembly
  Foreign Minister Sugiono led Indonesia's delegation to the 81st United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York from September 22 to 26, 2026. Indonesia used this platform to advocate for greater international efforts to resolve conflicts, particularly concerning Palestine, advance reforms to the UN system, and strengthen the voice of the Global South. A significant announcement was Indonesia's bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for the 2029-2030 term, campaigning under the theme "Building Unity, Advancing Peace."

• Cybersecurity: Significant Financial Losses and Legislative Push
  Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti reported on September 24, 2026, that cyberattacks have caused an estimated US$6.2 billion in damages in Indonesia this year alone, highlighting the deepening cybersecurity risks associated with automation and artificial intelligence. In response, the Indonesian Internet Service Providers Association (APJII) is advocating for the immediate ratification of the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill (KKS Bill) to provide legal certainty and integrated security standards for the industry.

• Cybersecurity: International Cooperation and Domestic Events
  On September 24, 2026, Indonesia signed the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime in New York, joining 90 other parties. This move aims to bolster national efforts to prevent and criminalize cyber offenses and enhance international cooperation against various forms of cybercrime. Domestically, the "IndoSec 2026" cybersecurity summit was held in Jakarta on September 15-16, 2026, focusing on national cyber resilience, zero trust architecture, cloud security, AI integration, and cyber warfare preparedness.

• Maritime and Border Security: South China Sea Dialogue
  Discussions between Indonesian and Chinese foreign ministers included deepening cooperation in maritime affairs and working towards the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. This indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts to manage regional maritime issues and promote stability in the disputed waters.

• Security Incidents: Natural Disaster Preparedness
  The scenario for Exercise Trident Resolve 2026 involved an earthquake, an eruption of Anak Krakatau, and a subsequent tsunami in Banten, Western Java. This reflects the ongoing natural disaster risks in Indonesia, particularly around the Sunda Strait, where Anak Krakatau erupted earlier in September, disrupting air travel and leading to missing persons. The Indonesian military's 81st anniversary ceremony on October 5 will be held simply due to personnel being deployed for disaster response in several regions.

• Diplomatic Relations: Bilateral Consultations with Sri Lanka, Burkina Faso, and Cyprus
  Indonesia held its first Bilateral Consultation with Sri Lanka in Colombo on September 22, 2026, focusing on political, security, trade, and maritime cooperation. Additionally, on September 25, 2026, on the sidelines of the UNGA, Foreign Minister Sugiono signed bilateral Framework Agreements for Cooperation and mutual visa-exemption deals for diplomatic and service passport holders with both Burkina Faso and Cyprus, aiming to streamline bilateral exchanges and explore investment opportunities.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Indonesia's security and diplomatic activities during this period underscore its strategic importance and active role in shaping regional and global dynamics. The hosting of "Trident Resolve 2026," an ADMM-Plus exercise involving 19 nations including the United States, China, and Russia, highlights Indonesia's commitment to ASEAN centrality and its ability to convene diverse powers for practical cooperation, particularly in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. This multilateral engagement reinforces Indonesia's position as a crucial bridge-builder and a proponent of an open and inclusive regional security architecture, effectively balancing its relationships with major global powers.

The deepening strategic partnership with China, evidenced by high-level meetings and discussions on economic and security cooperation, including maritime affairs in the South China Sea, reflects Indonesia's pragmatic approach to leveraging its ties with Beijing for national development while advocating for regional stability and adherence to international law. Simultaneously, the enhanced Major Defense Cooperation Partnership with the United States, highlighted by the "Super Garuda Shield 2026" exercise, demonstrates Indonesia's continued commitment to strengthening defense capabilities with Western partners and contributing to a free and open Indo-Pacific. This dual-track engagement with both the US and China exemplifies Indonesia's strategy of strategic hedging and external diversification, aiming to maximize its geopolitical leverage amidst intensifying great power competition.

Furthermore, Indonesia's active participation in the UN General Assembly, where it championed UN reform, the voice of the Global South, and the Palestinian cause, reinforces its role as a significant diplomatic actor on the world stage. The ongoing finalization of the IEU-CEPA with the European Union is set to significantly deepen economic and strategic ties with another major global power, further diversifying Indonesia's international partnerships and expanding its trade and investment opportunities. These developments collectively position Indonesia as a pivotal player in maintaining regional stability and influencing broader strategic landscapes, navigating complex geopolitical currents through a balanced and proactive foreign policy.

Military and Defense Analysis

Indonesia's military and defense posture during this period is characterized by a strong emphasis on multinational cooperation, capability development, and adaptation to evolving threats. The successful hosting of "Trident Resolve 2026" in Banten, Western Java, showcased the Indonesian military's (TNI) capacity to lead and coordinate large-scale humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations with 19 countries. This exercise, which included components on cybersecurity and military medicine, is crucial for enhancing the TNI's readiness for both natural disasters and hybrid threats. The scenario involving an Anak Krakatau eruption and tsunami underscores the practical relevance of such drills for a nation highly susceptible to natural calamities.

The continued discussions around "Super Garuda Shield 2026," which concluded earlier in September, highlight Indonesia's ongoing military modernization programs and deepening interoperability with the United States and other partner nations. The exercise involved missile-firing drills, with the TNI operating Mistral missiles alongside the US Army's Stinger missiles, indicating efforts to enhance air defense capabilities and standardize procedures for heavy weapon systems. Furthermore, the focus on developing the TNI's relatively new cyber unit through joint exercises demonstrates a strategic investment in cyber warfare capabilities and resilience against digital threats. While specific defense spending trends were not detailed in the available news, the consistent participation in and hosting of major multinational exercises, coupled with discussions on defense equipment with Russia, suggest a sustained commitment to modernizing its forces and diversifying its defense acquisitions to maintain strategic autonomy.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months):
In the immediate future, Indonesia is expected to maintain a high level of diplomatic activity, particularly concerning the finalization of the Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA). High-level visits from EU leaders are anticipated in late October or early November, indicating a strong push towards signing and ratification. Domestically, the focus on cybersecurity will intensify, driven by the significant financial losses reported from cyberattacks and the ongoing push for the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill (KKS Bill). Indonesia will also continue its active role in multilateral forums, particularly at the UN, where its bid for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for 2029-2030 will gain momentum. The TNI will likely continue to be engaged in disaster response efforts, as indicated by the simplified 81st anniversary ceremony due to personnel deployments.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas:
Cybersecurity remains a critical flashpoint, with the reported US$6.2 billion in losses highlighting the vulnerability of Indonesia's digital infrastructure. The increasing sophistication of cyber threats, exacerbated by automation and AI, necessitates urgent and effective countermeasures. Natural disasters, particularly volcanic activity from Anak Krakatau and the associated risks of tsunamis and disruptions, continue to pose a significant and recurring threat, requiring robust preparedness and response mechanisms. While not explicitly a flashpoint in this period, the South China Sea remains an area of potential friction, and the progress of the Code of Conduct negotiations with China will be an important indicator of regional stability.

Indicators to monitor:
Key indicators to monitor include the timeline and successful ratification of the IEU-CEPA, which will significantly impact Indonesia's economic and diplomatic ties with Europe. The progress of the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill (KKS Bill) through the Indonesian parliament will be crucial for strengthening the nation's digital defenses. Furthermore, any new reports on cyberattack incidents or significant shifts in Indonesia's diplomatic engagements with major powers (US, China, Russia) will provide insights into its evolving strategic balancing act. The effectiveness of disaster response efforts and the implementation of lessons learned from exercises like Trident Resolve 2026 will also be important.

Strategic recommendations:
Indonesia should prioritize the rapid implementation of comprehensive cybersecurity legislation and invest heavily in national cyber defense capabilities, including public-private partnerships to protect critical infrastructure. Enhancing early warning systems and disaster response infrastructure, particularly in high-risk areas like the Sunda Strait, is paramount. Diplomatically, Indonesia should continue its balanced engagement with major powers, leveraging its strategic autonomy to secure economic benefits and promote regional stability. Sustained advocacy for UN reform and the interests of the Global South will further elevate its international standing. Internally, fostering national resilience through robust economic policies and social cohesion will underpin its external security posture.

Sources

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