Indonesia Security Report — October 23, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: October 16 — October 23, 2026.

Executive Summary

Indonesia experienced a dynamic security week from October 16 to October 23, 2026, marked by significant military exercises, high-level diplomatic engagements, and ongoing domestic challenges. The nation successfully concluded a major bilateral military exercise, Keris Woomera 26, with Australia, enhancing interoperability across multiple domains. Diplomatic efforts were highlighted by the visit of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, reinforcing Indonesia's commitment to multilateralism and global peacekeeping. Domestically, Indonesia grappled with severe forest fires and their regional haze impact, alongside escalating cybersecurity threats which prompted a new cooperation agreement with Singapore. The Indonesian Air Force also demonstrated operational readiness by conducting an emergency runway drill on a public toll road.

Key Security Developments

• Military Activities and Exercises: Indonesia-Australia Exercise Keris Woomera 26 Concludes
  The joint bilateral exercise Keris Woomera 26 between Indonesia and Australia concluded on October 20, 2026, after running from October 16. Held around Banyuwangi, East Java, and the Bali Sea, the drills involved approximately 1,000 Australian Defense Force personnel and 1,235 Indonesian National Armed Forces members. The exercise included an amphibious landing, live-fire activities, maritime integration, and notably, the first-time cyber integration training between the two nations, demonstrating strengthened interoperability and a shared commitment to regional security.

• Military Activities and Exercises: Indonesian Air Force Conducts Emergency Runway Drill
  On October 22, 2026, the Indonesian Air Force tested fighter jet take-offs and landings on a three-kilometer section of the Pasuruan–Probolinggo Toll Road in East Java. Two F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets and two Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano aircraft participated in the operational readiness drill. This exercise aimed to assess the toll road's suitability as an alternative runway during emergencies, such as when conventional air bases are unavailable, emphasizing contingency planning and infrastructure utilization for defense.

• Diplomatic Relations: UN Secretary-General António Guterres Visits Indonesia
  UN Secretary-General António Guterres conducted an official visit to Indonesia from October 17 to October 19, 2026. During his visit, he held bilateral meetings with President Prabowo Subianto, focusing on strengthening multilateral cooperation, global geopolitical issues, sustainable development, and world peace. Guterres also visited the Indonesian Armed Forces Peacekeeping Mission Center (PMPP TNI) to meet personnel preparing for deployment to the UN mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), acknowledging Indonesia's significant contributions to UN peacekeeping.

• Diplomatic Relations: Indonesia Intensifies Campaign for UN Security Council Seat
  Indonesia is actively intensifying its campaign to secure a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2029-2030 term. On October 22, 2026, the Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yvonne Mewengkang, stated that the Indonesian government is promoting this candidacy through active engagement with various UN member states, aiming to strengthen the voice of the Global South within the UN.

• Diplomatic Relations: Indonesia's Shifting Stance on Foreign Aid for Forest Fires
  President Prabowo Subianto initially approved foreign assistance to combat severe forest fires on October 16, 2026, which have caused widespread haze and respiratory problems, particularly impacting neighboring countries like Malaysia and Singapore. However, by October 19, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Dudung Abdurachman stated that Indonesia could still cope with its own resources and postponed foreign aid, citing technical challenges. On October 21, President Prabowo further warned countries "insulting" Indonesia over the fires, threatening to expose companies from those nations suspected of contributing to the blazes.

• Diplomatic Relations: UN Special Rapporteur Urges Indonesia to Uphold International Law on Palestine
  On October 22, 2026, Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territory, urged Indonesia to remain guided by international law regarding the Palestinian struggle. She emphasized this despite Indonesia's participation in the "Board of Peace" initiated by US President Donald Trump, suggesting that the Board of Peace would not guarantee the fulfillment of the Palestinian people's right to self-determination and encouraged Indonesia to evaluate cooperation with Israel.

• Cybersecurity: Indonesia and Singapore Sign Cybersecurity Cooperation MOU
  Singapore and Indonesia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on cybersecurity cooperation on October 22, 2026, during the Singapore International Cyber Week (SICW) 2026. The agreement aims to strengthen bilateral cooperation on cybersecurity strategies, Critical Information Infrastructure protection, cyber-related information sharing, and cybersecurity standards for organizations and IoT devices, fostering a more cyber-resilient region.

• Cybersecurity: Indonesia Faces Escalating Cyberattack Threat
  Indonesia continues to face a significant and escalating threat from cyberattacks. Data from the National Cyber and Crypto Agency (BSSN) reported 5.5 billion cyberattacks in 2025, with an additional 1.52 billion recorded from January 1 to April 15, 2026. Bank Indonesia projects that losses from cyberattacks in Indonesia could reach approximately US$6.2 billion (Rp110.93 trillion) in 2026, underscoring the urgent need for robust data protection and digital security frameworks.

• Counter-terrorism: Indonesian Police Peacekeeping Contingent Returns from Central Africa
  On October 19, 2026, the Indonesian National Police (Polri) Garuda Bhayangkara contingent returned to Indonesia after completing a one-year deployment as part of the seventh Formed Police Unit (FPU-7) under the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). The contingent was notably entrusted with ensuring the security of presidential and vice-presidential candidates during elections in the Central African Republic, demonstrating Indonesia's commitment to international peace and stability.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Indonesia's activities during this period underscore its commitment to maintaining a "free and active" foreign policy, balancing engagement with major powers while asserting its national interests and regional leadership. The successful conclusion of Exercise Keris Woomera 26 with Australia strengthens a key bilateral defense relationship, contributing to regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. This exercise, which included cyber integration, highlights a growing focus on multi-domain cooperation to address shared security challenges.

The visit by UN Secretary-General António Guterres reinforced Indonesia's role as a significant player in multilateral diplomacy, particularly as it intensifies its campaign for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for 2029-2030. Indonesia's advocacy for the Global South and its consistent support for UN peacekeeping missions position it as a voice for developing nations and a contributor to global peace. However, the UN Special Rapporteur's caution regarding Indonesia's engagement with the US-initiated "Board of Peace" and its implications for the Palestinian cause highlights the complexities of navigating global alliances while upholding principled foreign policy stances.

Regionally, the ongoing forest fires and the resulting transboundary haze continue to be a diplomatic flashpoint. While President Prabowo initially indicated openness to foreign aid, the subsequent decision to postpone external assistance and his strong warnings against countries "insulting" Indonesia reflect a sensitive assertion of national sovereignty amidst environmental crisis. This situation has implications for ASEAN solidarity and cooperation on environmental issues. The new cybersecurity cooperation MOU with Singapore, however, demonstrates a pragmatic approach to addressing shared digital threats, fostering regional resilience in a critical domain.

Military and Defense Analysis

Indonesia's military and defense posture during this period reflects a continued emphasis on modernization and enhancing operational readiness. The Keris Woomera 26 exercise with Australia showcased the Indonesian National Armed Forces' (TNI) capability to engage in complex, multi-domain operations, including amphibious landings and maritime integration, crucial for securing its vast archipelago. The inclusion of cyber integration training in this exercise indicates a growing recognition of the importance of cybersecurity in modern warfare.

The Indonesian Air Force's drill on the Pasuruan–Probolinggo Toll Road demonstrates a proactive approach to developing contingency capabilities, ensuring that critical air operations can be maintained even if traditional airfields are compromised. This highlights a strategic effort to enhance resilience and flexibility in force projection. While no new major defense acquisitions were announced within this specific week, Indonesia is in the midst of a significant arms modernization program, including the acquisition of Rafale fighter jets, KAAN fighters from Turkey, Italian warships, Scorpene submarines, and US-made Assault Amphibious Vehicles (AAVs). The US also formally included Indonesia in an F-15 procurement and support framework in August 2026, indicating potential future acquisitions. Defense spending has seen substantial increases, with a budget of 337.4 trillion rupiah for 2026, reflecting a long-term commitment to upgrading its aging military hardware, although as a percentage of GDP, it remains lower than some regional counterparts.

Outlook and Forecast

In the short term (1-3 months), Indonesia is expected to continue its robust defense modernization efforts, with further deliveries of previously ordered military hardware anticipated. The focus will likely remain on enhancing interoperability through bilateral and multilateral exercises, particularly in maritime and air domains, to secure its extensive territorial waters and airspace. Diplomatic engagement will likely intensify around its bid for a UN Security Council seat, requiring sustained outreach to garner international support.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas include the ongoing forest fires and their potential to escalate into a prolonged regional environmental and diplomatic crisis, especially if haze conditions worsen. The South China Sea remains a persistent area of concern for maritime security, although no specific incidents were reported this week, Indonesia's efforts to strengthen its maritime agencies and regional cooperation will be crucial. The escalating volume of cyberattacks poses a significant and immediate risk to critical infrastructure and data integrity, demanding urgent and comprehensive cybersecurity enhancements.

Indicators to monitor include the progress of Indonesia's defense acquisition programs and the integration of new assets, the effectiveness of its national disaster response to forest fires, and the diplomatic fallout or resolution of the haze issue. Furthermore, monitoring the implementation of the cybersecurity MOU with Singapore and any new initiatives to combat cyber threats will be vital. Indonesia's stance and actions regarding regional geopolitical dynamics, particularly its balancing act between major powers and its advocacy for the Global South, will also be key indicators of its evolving strategic landscape.

Strategic recommendations include accelerating the implementation of comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks and investing heavily in cyber defense capabilities and human resources. Proactive and transparent regional cooperation on environmental issues, particularly forest fire prevention and mitigation, is essential to mitigate diplomatic tensions. Continued strategic investments in defense modernization, coupled with a clear doctrine for the deployment and interoperability of new assets, will be crucial for maintaining national security and contributing to regional stability.

Sources

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