Hong Kong Security Report — February 23, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 16 — February 23, 2026.

Executive Summary

During the period of February 16-23, 2026, Hong Kong's security landscape remained heavily influenced by Beijing's unwavering focus on national security and internal stability. A significant development was the recent release of a white paper by China's State Council, reiterating the central government's fundamental responsibility for Hong Kong's national security and the Special Administrative Region's (HKSAR) constitutional duty to uphold it. Cybersecurity emerged as a critical concern, with a recent report highlighting a record increase in incidents and identifying AI-driven attacks as a top risk for 2026. Diplomatically, while China and the US expressed a desire for strengthened dialogue, Western powers continued to voice concerns regarding human rights and the implications of Hong Kong's national security legislation. The HKSAR government also emphasized the ongoing threat of "soft resistance" to national security.

Key Security Developments

• Defense Policy and Strategic Shifts: White Paper on National Security
  China's State Council Information Office released a white paper on February 10, 2026, titled "Hong Kong: Safeguarding China's National Security Under the Framework of One Country, Two Systems." This document underscores Beijing's primary responsibility for national security matters concerning Hong Kong and highlights the HKSAR's constitutional obligation to safeguard it through local legislation. The white paper was released a day after former media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying was sentenced to 20 years in prison for national security crimes, a judgment endorsed by both the central government and Hong Kong's leadership. The paper explicitly states that the struggle to safeguard national security in Hong Kong is a "long-term and enduring task."

• Internal Security: Threat of "Soft Resistance"
  On February 1, 2026, Hong Kong's Secretary for Security, Chris Tang Ping-keung, identified "soft resistance" as one of the four primary risks to the city's national security. He explained that "soft resistance" involves using seemingly insignificant societal or livelihood issues, often with fake news or misinformation, to incite discontent against the government or stir conflict among residents. The police's national security hotline has received 1.1 million reports since its inception in November 2020, with some leading to arrests, indicating the government's active monitoring of such threats.

• Cybersecurity: Record Incidents and AI Threats
  The Hong Kong Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Centre (HKCERT) released its "Hong Kong Cybersecurity Outlook 2026" on January 28, 2026, revealing a record high of 15,877 cybersecurity incidents in Hong Kong in 2025, marking a 27% year-on-year increase. The report identifies five key cybersecurity risks for 2026, predominantly focusing on AI-driven attacks, weak AI governance, supply chain vulnerabilities, over-reliance on cloud infrastructure, and emerging threats from AI-enabled devices. Additionally, GovCERT.HK issued a "High Threat Security Alert (A26-02-22): Vulnerability in Google Chrome" on February 16, 2026, highlighting immediate software-related risks.

• Diplomatic Relations: US-China Engagement and Western Concerns
  On February 13, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, agreeing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in various fields to promote stable Sino-US relations. Concurrently, Hong Kong Watch held a meeting at the White House on February 13, 2026, where the US China Director reaffirmed support for the people of Hong Kong and the diaspora community. It was noted that President Donald Trump had personally raised the case of Jimmy Lai with President Xi Jinping during their last meeting and plans to do so again during a planned visit to Beijing in April.

• Diplomatic Relations: EU-Hong Kong Tensions
  The European Union and Hong Kong maintain a stable trade relationship, but high-level bilateral dialogue has been suspended since December 2019 due to political and practical reasons. On January 22, 2026, the Hong Kong SAR Government vehemently opposed a resolution adopted by the European Parliament concerning Hong Kong, strongly condemning its "baseless allegations" regarding the Jimmy Lai case and the city's national security laws. This highlights continued friction over human rights and the rule of law in Hong Kong.

• Counter-terrorism: Ongoing Vigilance and Future Conference
  The global terrorist threat remains complex and challenging for Hong Kong, as acknowledged by the Inter-departmental Counter Terrorism Unit (ICTU), established in April 2018 to continuously enhance the city's counter-terrorism capabilities. Looking ahead, an International Conference on Counter Terrorism and Human Security (ICCTHS) is scheduled to take place in Hong Kong on September 27-28, 2026, indicating a sustained focus on counter-terrorism strategies and human security.

• Military Activities and Exercises: PLA Garrison Training
  The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Hong Kong Garrison commenced its military training for the 2026 training year on January 4, 2026. This training involves troops from the Army, Navy, and Air Force stationed in Hong Kong, aimed at enhancing combat capabilities and strengthening their ability to fulfill Hong Kong's defense responsibilities.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Hong Kong's recent security developments, particularly the emphasis on national security, continue to shape its geopolitical standing and regional dynamics. The white paper released by China's State Council on February 10, 2026, explicitly reinforces Beijing's "overall jurisdiction" over Hong Kong and reiterates that safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests is the "highest principle" of the "One Country, Two Systems" framework. This signals a continued trajectory of deeper integration with mainland China's security agenda, potentially further eroding the city's distinct autonomy in the eyes of some international observers. The timing of the white paper, following the sentencing of Jimmy Lai, underscores Beijing's resolve in enforcing its national security framework.

Relations with major Western powers, particularly the United States and the European Union, remain strained. While China and the US expressed a desire for strengthened dialogue, the US continues to advocate for the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, especially following the imposition of the National Security Law and the recent Article 23 legislation. The US administration's reported intention to raise Jimmy Lai's case with President Xi Jinping during an upcoming visit to Beijing in April highlights ongoing diplomatic pressure on human rights issues. Similarly, the EU's bilateral dialogue with Hong Kong has been suspended since December 2019, and the HKSAR government's strong rejection of a recent European Parliament resolution concerning Hong Kong demonstrates the persistent diplomatic friction over the city's governance and human rights record.

Despite these tensions, the white paper also articulates a vision of "open security," aiming to dynamically protect national security within an open environment and safeguard global industrial, supply, and capital chains. This suggests that while security is paramount, Beijing and the HKSAR government still aim for Hong Kong to maintain its role as an international financial and economic hub, albeit under a more stringent national security framework. The ongoing cybersecurity threats, as highlighted by the HKCERT report, also have regional implications, as Hong Kong's digital security is intertwined with broader regional and global economic stability.

Military and Defense Analysis

Hong Kong's defense posture is primarily managed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Hong Kong Garrison. The garrison initiated its annual military training for 2026 on January 4, 2026, involving personnel from the Army, Navy, and Air Force. This routine but significant exercise aims to enhance the combat capabilities of the stationed troops and reinforce their ability to fulfill Hong Kong's defense responsibilities. The PLA's presence serves as a clear demonstration of China's sovereignty over the HKSAR and its commitment to maintaining security within the territory.

There were no specific reports within the February 16-23, 2026, period detailing new defense acquisitions, significant changes in force posture, or shifts in defense spending trends for Hong Kong itself. The focus of security efforts, as evidenced by the recent white paper and statements from Hong Kong officials, remains predominantly on internal national security, counter-terrorism, and cybersecurity, rather than conventional military defense against external threats. The "One Country, Two Systems" framework dictates that defense and foreign affairs are the responsibility of the Central People's Government. Therefore, any significant military modernization programs or defense spending trends would typically be part of broader PLA initiatives rather than specific Hong Kong-led defense developments.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, Hong Kong is expected to continue its rigorous enforcement of national security laws, particularly in light of the recent white paper from Beijing emphasizing the "long-term and enduring task" of safeguarding national security. The HKSAR government will likely maintain its vigilance against "soft resistance" and other perceived threats, potentially leading to further actions against individuals or groups deemed to undermine national security. Cybersecurity will remain a high-priority area, with increased efforts to address the rising number of incidents and mitigate risks from AI-driven attacks and supply chain vulnerabilities, as outlined in the HKCERT's "Hong Kong Cybersecurity Outlook 2026." Diplomatic tensions with Western nations over human rights and autonomy issues are expected to persist, particularly with the US potentially raising the Jimmy Lai case during upcoming high-level engagements.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: Critical flashpoints include any further high-profile national security prosecutions or arrests, which could exacerbate international criticism and diplomatic friction. The evolving nature of "soft resistance" and the government's response to it will be a key area of concern, as it touches upon freedom of expression and assembly. The increasing sophistication of cyber threats, especially those leveraging AI, poses a significant risk to Hong Kong's financial and technological infrastructure. Any major cybersecurity breach could have substantial economic and reputational consequences. The ongoing geopolitical competition between China and Western powers will continue to cast a shadow over Hong Kong, potentially leading to further sanctions or restrictions from the US and EU.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include official statements and actions by the HKSAR government and Beijing regarding national security enforcement, particularly any new interpretations or applications of the National Security Law and the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance (Article 23 legislation). The frequency and nature of cybersecurity alerts and reported incidents will provide insights into the effectiveness of defensive measures. Diplomatic exchanges and statements from the US, EU, and other international bodies concerning Hong Kong's autonomy and human rights will be crucial. Additionally, monitoring public sentiment and any signs of social unrest, even in subtle forms of "soft resistance," will be important for assessing internal stability.

Strategic recommendations: For international businesses and organizations operating in Hong Kong, it is strategically important to enhance cybersecurity resilience and ensure strict compliance with both the National Security Law and the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance. This includes reviewing data handling practices, supply chain security, and internal communication policies. For foreign governments, a nuanced diplomatic approach is recommended, balancing engagement with China on broader issues while consistently advocating for human rights and the preservation of Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy as enshrined in the Basic Law. Continued monitoring of legislative developments, judicial proceedings, and civil society space in Hong Kong is essential for informed policy-making and risk assessment.