China Security Report — February 23, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 16 — February 23, 2026.

Security Analysis Report: China (February 16-23, 2026)

Executive Summary

During the period of February 16-23, 2026, China's security posture was characterized by intensified military activities in contested maritime zones, robust diplomatic engagements, and significant advancements in cybersecurity legislation. Joint naval exercises with Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz underscored deepening strategic alignment, while escalating "gray-zone" tactics in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait heightened regional tensions. Diplomatic efforts with the United States aimed at stabilizing relations, even as cybersecurity threats from China-based actors against regional neighbors intensified. Domestically, China focused on managing a surge in Spring Festival border crossings and continued to refine its counter-terrorism framework.

Key Security Developments

• Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity in South China Sea
  The United States, Australia, and the Philippines concluded a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) on February 15-16, 2026, within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea. This marked the first trilateral MCA of the year, emphasizing Washington's treaty commitments to Manila and reflecting growing efforts to deter coercion and reinforce a rules-based maritime order amidst recurrent incidents between Philippine and Chinese vessels.

• Chinese Military Patrols in South China Sea
  Concurrently with the trilateral MCA, the Chinese military conducted naval and air combat readiness patrols in the territorial waters of the South China Sea from February 15-16, 2026. This demonstrates China's continued assertion of sovereignty and presence in the disputed waters, contributing to rising tensions in the region, particularly around features like Second Thomas Shoal where Chinese coast guard ships have been involved in blocking and using water cannons against Philippine supply boats.

• "Maritime Security Belt 2026" Naval Drills with Russia and Iran
  Russia, China, and Iran launched the joint naval exercise "Maritime Security Belt 2026" in the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement made on February 17, 2026. Chinese naval assets participating included the Type 052DL guided-missile destroyer Tangshan (D122), the Type 054A frigate Daqing (F576), and the Type 903A replenishment ship Taihu (K889). These drills, following the BRICS naval exercise "Will for Peace 2026," signal deepening military coordination and strategic convergence among the three nations.

• Escalating "Gray-Zone" Pressure in Taiwan Strait
  Tensions in the Taiwan Strait remained a critical concern, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's remarks at the Munich Security Conference fueling debate over a potential turning point in cross-strait relations in 2026. Analysts anticipate intensified "gray-zone" measures from Beijing, including cyber disruptions, economic coercion, maritime incidents, or limited blockade-style pressure, creating a dangerous "new normal" where miscalculation is increasingly possible.

• Significant Chinese Military Presence Near Taiwan
  In the 24 hours leading up to February 13, 2026, China dispatched 42 military aircraft and 11 warships to Taiwan's shores, bringing the total detected in the Taiwan Strait since early February to 113 aircraft and 88 ships. This sustained, large-scale military coercion, including drills rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan's contiguous zone, indicates a steady escalation of aggressive objectives.

• Taiwan's Defense Budget Prioritization
  Taiwan's Legislative Yuan prioritized the review of a NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget after the Lunar New Year holiday (around February 16, 2026). This move responds to concerns from US lawmakers regarding potential weapons delivery backlogs and aims to bolster Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities and weapons acquisition pace.

• High-Level US-China Diplomatic Engagement
  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference (around February 13, 2026). Both sides agreed to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in various fields and to manage differences, with Wang Yi emphasizing that dialogue is preferable to confrontation. This engagement follows President Trump's announcement of an April 2026 trip to China to meet President Xi Jinping, signaling a potential thaw in relations.

• Deepening China-Russia Strategic Coordination
  Chinese President Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 4, 2026, to discuss strengthening strategic coordination and pragmatic cooperation. Putin is also expected to visit China twice in 2026. Both leaders affirmed their commitment to defending the UN-centered international system and maintaining global strategic stability.

• Escalating Cyber Threats Against the Philippines
  The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) warned on February 19, 2026, that cyber threats against the Philippines from China-based actors are intensifying due to geopolitical tensions. These attacks are specifically linked to territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea, involving malware, DDoS attacks, data leaks, and website compromises to advance Beijing's regional ambitions.

• New Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law Draft
  China unveiled a draft Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law (February 7, 2026) that would significantly expand state powers to address online crime. Key provisions include allowing authorities to bar convicted cybercriminals from leaving the country for up to three years after serving their sentences and pursuing legal action against Chinese nationals abroad and foreign entities for online activities deemed harmful to China's national interests. This builds upon the amended Cybersecurity Law (CSL) which took effect on January 1, 2026, expanding penalties and extraterritorial reach.

• Intelligence Support to Iran in Jordan
  Commercial Chinese satellite imagery from February 2026 revealed the US deployment of THAAD defense systems at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. China reportedly contributed to guiding Tehran militarily in intelligence and technical intelligence regarding these US preparations, indicating a level of intelligence cooperation with Iran.

• Spring Festival Border Security Management
  China's National Immigration Administration (NIA) forecast that average daily inbound and outbound passenger flows during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday (February 15-23, 2026) would exceed 2.05 million, the highest level since 2019. To manage this surge, the NIA deployed 9,000 additional officers, reopened all e-gate channels, and activated "holiday mode" at 15 major land crossings, aiming to keep clearance times under 30 minutes.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

China's security developments during this period have significant geopolitical implications, particularly for regional stability and relations with major powers. The joint naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, "Maritime Security Belt 2026," underscore a deepening strategic alignment among these nations, challenging the existing maritime governance framework and potentially signaling a broader multilateral security architecture among BRICS-aligned states. This trilateral exercise, coinciding with increased US naval presence in the Gulf, intensifies strategic competition over critical energy chokepoints and reflects a contestation over maritime norms.

In the Indo-Pacific, the continued escalation of "gray-zone" tactics in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait directly impacts regional stability. The US-Australia-Philippines trilateral maritime activity in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone is a clear response to China's assertive actions, highlighting the growing network of alliances aimed at deterring Chinese coercion. The persistent cyber threats from China-based actors against the Philippines, linked to territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea, further exacerbate these tensions and demonstrate a multi-domain approach to asserting regional claims. The situation in the Taiwan Strait remains a critical flashpoint, with China's sustained military presence and "gray-zone" pressure raising the risk of miscalculation.

Relations with major powers are complex and multifaceted. While high-level diplomatic engagements between China and the US, including a planned summit between Presidents Xi and Trump, suggest a desire for stabilization and dialogue, underlying issues such as Taiwan and technology remain significant flashpoints. China's deepening ties with Russia are evident in their continued strategic coordination and high-level exchanges, with both nations committed to a more multipolar world order. EU-China relations are characterized by "cautious engagement," balancing economic interdependence with structural imbalances and differing views on trade protectionism and human rights. China's intelligence support to Iran regarding US military deployments in Jordan also indicates a willingness to challenge US influence in the Middle East through non-traditional means.

Military and Defense Analysis

China's military activities during this period reflect a continued focus on force projection, modernization, and asymmetric capabilities. The participation of advanced naval assets like the Type 052DL guided-missile destroyer Tangshan in the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" exercises demonstrates China's intent to deploy credible blue-water combatants capable of sustained operations beyond littoral confines. This aligns with a broader modernization program aimed at developing a world-class military. The increased naval and air combat readiness patrols in the South China Sea and the significant deployment of aircraft and warships in the Taiwan Strait underscore China's commitment to asserting its territorial claims and projecting power in its immediate periphery.

The "gray-zone" tactics employed in the Taiwan Strait, including cyber disruptions and economic coercion, highlight China's emphasis on non-kinetic forms of warfare and its efforts to erode Taiwan's strategic comfort zone without initiating a full-scale conflict. This approach aims to demonstrate capability and normalize pressure. While specific defense spending figures for this exact period are not available, the overall trend points towards sustained investment in military capabilities, particularly in areas like naval power, air force modernization, and cyber warfare, to support these strategic objectives. Taiwan's prioritization of a significant defense budget is a direct response to China's growing military might and assertive posture, indicating a regional arms race driven by perceived threats.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, maritime tensions in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are likely to remain elevated. China will continue its "gray-zone" operations, including naval and air patrols, to assert its claims and test regional responses. The US, along with allies like Australia and the Philippines, will likely maintain a visible presence and conduct further cooperative activities to counter Chinese assertiveness. Diplomatic engagements between China and the US, particularly the planned April 2026 summit between Presidents Xi and Trump, will be closely watched for any signs of de-escalation or new frameworks for managing competition. However, fundamental disagreements over Taiwan and technology will persist. China's cybersecurity efforts, both offensive and defensive, will continue to expand, with the new cybercrime law and amended cybersecurity law providing broader legal tools for state control and extraterritorial enforcement.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The Taiwan Strait remains the most critical flashpoint, with the risk of miscalculation increasing due to intensified "gray-zone" measures and sustained military pressure. Any significant incident involving Chinese and Taiwanese forces, or those of the US and its allies, could rapidly escalate. The South China Sea also poses a high risk, particularly around disputed features like Second Thomas Shoal, where direct confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels could lead to unintended consequences. The deepening strategic alignment between China, Russia, and Iran, exemplified by their joint naval drills, could lead to further coordinated actions that challenge Western interests and potentially destabilize other regions.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the frequency and scale of Chinese military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, particularly any incursions into Taiwan's contiguous zone or aggressive actions against Philippine vessels. The outcomes of high-level diplomatic meetings between China and the US, and any progress on trade or military-to-military dialogue, will be crucial. Developments in Taiwan's defense budget implementation and any new defense acquisitions will signal its resolve and external support. The nature and intensity of cyberattacks attributed to China-based actors against regional neighbors, especially the Philippines, will indicate the ongoing use of this domain for geopolitical objectives. Finally, the extent of China's cooperation with Russia and Iran in military and intelligence spheres will be important for assessing shifts in global power dynamics.

Strategic recommendations: For international actors concerned with regional stability, a multi-pronged approach is recommended. This includes strengthening deterrence through continued military cooperation and exercises with regional partners to counter Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Simultaneously, maintaining open and consistent diplomatic channels with Beijing is essential to manage differences, prevent miscalculation, and explore areas of common interest. Investing in cybersecurity defenses and intelligence sharing with affected nations, particularly the Philippines, is crucial to mitigate the escalating cyber threats. Furthermore, closely monitoring China's evolving counter-terrorism strategies and its use of advanced technologies, both domestically and in securing overseas interests, will be important for understanding its broader security doctrine. Finally, a coordinated international response to China's growing strategic alignment with Russia and Iran should be considered to uphold international norms and prevent further destabilization.