Cambodia Security Report — October 25, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: October 18 — October 25, 2026.

Executive Summary

Cambodia's security landscape from October 18 to October 25, 2026, was primarily shaped by persistent tensions with Thailand over land and maritime borders, alongside active diplomatic engagements to de-escalate these disputes. Significant efforts were made in The Hague to establish confidence-building measures for the contested Gulf of Thailand seabed, while accusations of military use of the Preah Vihear temple heightened land border sensitivities. Concurrently, Cambodia continued to strengthen its defense cooperation with Vietnam and saw warming relations with the United States, even as its deep strategic partnership with China remained robust. Domestically, authorities intensified their crackdown on technology-enabled scam operations, freezing substantial assets and seeking international assistance for alleged ringleaders.

Key Security Developments

• Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions and Accusations
  On October 22, 2026, the Royal Thai Army accused Cambodia of using the Preah Vihear Temple as a military base, alleging the installation of mortars, artillery, ammunition stores, and anti-drone systems to support attacks on Thai personnel and communities. The Thai army argued that this military use caused the heritage site to "temporarily lose legal protection" under international law, justifying Thailand's military response as self-defense. Cambodia's Ministry of Culture and Fine Arts rejected these claims on October 22, stating that heritage sites are used for cultural, religious, conservation, research, educational, and tourism purposes. This exchange underscores the volatile nature of the disputed land border, where clashes in 2025 killed dozens and displaced nearly a million people.

• Diplomatic Efforts on Maritime Boundary Dispute
  Cambodia and Thailand held their second meeting of the UNCLOS Conciliation Commission in The Hague, Netherlands, from October 14 to 18, 2026, to address their maritime boundary dispute in the Gulf of Thailand. On October 20, 2026, it was reported that both nations agreed to dial down rhetoric and use a hotline between their navy commanders to avoid flashpoints over the contested seabed, estimated to hold US$300 billion in oil and gas reserves.

• Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures with Thailand
  Following the UNCLOS meeting, Cambodia and Thailand agreed on six confidence-building measures aimed at fostering mutual trust and facilitating an equitable solution. These measures, accepted on October 18, 2026, include commitments to constructive public communication, avoiding threats or the use of force, restoring diplomatic representation, and implementing existing agreements. Thailand, on October 22, 2026, stated it would test Cambodia's sincerity based on the full implementation of these measures.

• Cambodia Urges Restoration of Diplomatic Ties with Thailand
  On October 21, 2026, Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn called for the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Thailand, which have been reduced to the level of second secretaries. Sokhonn emphasized that stronger diplomatic engagement is crucial for preventing misunderstandings and resolving bilateral disputes through dialogue rather than military means.

• ASEAN Mediation and Observer Team
  The Philippines, as the ASEAN Chair for 2026, facilitated trilateral talks between Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on October 24, 2026, on the sidelines of the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu. President Marcos Jr. stated that agreements were reached, and ways forward were discussed, reflecting a shared commitment to dialogue and restraint. The mandate of the ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), which monitors the ceasefire along the Cambodia-Thailand border, was extended for another three months, with the Philippines affirming its commitment as AOT Coordinator. On October 21, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff, Gen. Antonio Nafarrete, visited the Boeung Trakuon border crossing area in Banteay Meanchey Province, Cambodia, to observe the AOT mission.

• Deepening Military Cooperation with Vietnam
  On October 19, 2026, Cambodian and Vietnamese military officials reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral defense cooperation. General Vong Pisen, Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF), met with Brigadier General Phan Van Hoat, Deputy Director of the Operations Department of the General Staff of the Vietnam People's Army, to discuss cooperation in training, information exchange, combatting cross-border crime, disaster response, and border-related affairs. Gen. Pisen also briefed the Vietnamese delegation on the situation along the Cambodia-Thailand border and sought continued support for the ASEAN Observer Team mission.

• Warming Relations and Defense Cooperation with the United States
  Cambodia's relations with the United States continued to warm, with plans to resume their annual joint military exercises, "Angkor Sentinel 2027," in early 2027 after a nearly decade-long suspension. This follows discussions in August 2026 between Prime Minister Hun Manet and US Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge A. Colby, focusing on strengthening defense capabilities and military ties. The US had previously removed Cambodia from its arms sale blacklist in early February 2026.

• Continued Strong Strategic Partnership with China
  China reiterated its commitment to carrying forward the China-Cambodia friendship, making the relationship a model for China's relations with neighboring countries. This follows the inaugural meeting of the China-Cambodia "2+2" Strategic Dialogue Mechanism between foreign and defense ministers in April 2026, indicating expanding bilateral cooperation beyond individual projects. China also hosted the third Track II dialogue on October 11, 2026, facilitating in-depth exchanges between Cambodia and Thailand for lasting border peace.

• Crackdown on Online Scam Operations
  On October 22, 2026, Cambodian authorities announced the freezing of nearly US$1 billion in assets linked to the Prince Group, a conglomerate implicated in technology-based fraud and money laundering. Authorities are seeking INTERPOL Red Notices for at least 29 alleged ringleaders who have fled overseas. This intensified crackdown follows actions against 910 locations linked to online scam operations between July 2025 and September 2026, resulting in 5,778 suspects charged and detained.

• Multilateral Engagement and New Diplomatic Ties
  Prime Minister Hun Manet attended the 7th Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Baku, Azerbaijan, from October 11 to 15, 2026, where he raised concerns about the Cambodia-Thailand border situation. During this period, Cambodia also pledged to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties with Uzbekistan (October 23, 2026) and signed cooperation documents with Kazakhstan and Türkiye (October 19, 2026).

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Cambodia's security developments during this period significantly influence regional stability, particularly within ASEAN. The ongoing border dispute with Thailand, encompassing both land and a lucrative maritime area in the Gulf of Thailand, remains a critical flashpoint. While diplomatic efforts, including UNCLOS conciliation talks and ASEAN-facilitated discussions, are actively underway, the persistent accusations of military encroachment and the reduction of diplomatic representation highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ASEAN's role as a mediator, particularly through the extended mandate of the ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), is crucial in preventing further escalation and demonstrating the bloc's capacity for internal conflict resolution. The Philippines' active role as ASEAN Chair in facilitating talks underscores a regional commitment to peaceful dispute settlement.

Cambodia's foreign policy continues its delicate balancing act between major powers. The deep strategic partnership with China, characterized by strong diplomatic ties and expanding cooperation mechanisms like the "2+2" Strategic Dialogue, remains a cornerstone of Cambodia's external relations. China's active role in facilitating Track II dialogues between Cambodia and Thailand further solidifies its influence in regional peace efforts. Simultaneously, the warming relations with the United States, marked by the resumption of joint military exercises and the lifting of arms sale restrictions, indicate Cambodia's strategic diversification and a desire to engage with both global powers. This dual engagement allows Cambodia to leverage support from both sides, but also places it at the center of intensifying geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific.

The increased military cooperation with Vietnam, focusing on training, information exchange, and cross-border crime suppression, reinforces traditional alliances within mainland Southeast Asia. This cooperation, coupled with Cambodia's participation in multilateral forums like CICA and new bilateral agreements with Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries, reflects a broader strategy to enhance its diplomatic footprint and secure economic and security interests beyond its immediate neighborhood. The crackdown on online scam operations, often involving transnational criminal networks, also has regional implications, as it addresses a shared security threat and demonstrates Cambodia's commitment to international law enforcement cooperation.

Military and Defense Analysis

Cambodia's military posture during this period is largely defined by its defensive requirements along the disputed border with Thailand and its ongoing modernization efforts through international cooperation. The Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) remain on high alert, as evidenced by the Thai army's accusations regarding the military use of Preah Vihear temple, which Cambodia denies. This highlights a continued focus on border security and territorial integrity as a primary defense concern.

Modernization programs appear to be progressing through diversified partnerships. The planned resumption of the "Angkor Sentinel 2027" joint military exercises with the United States signifies a renewed commitment to interoperability and disaster-response capabilities, potentially leading to enhanced training and equipment exchanges. Concurrently, deepening military cooperation with Vietnam in areas such as training, information exchange, and cross-border crime suppression further bolsters Cambodia's capabilities, particularly in land border management and internal security. While specific defense spending figures were not detailed in the news, the emphasis on joint exercises and cooperation suggests an ongoing investment in human resource development and capability building, often supported by partner nations. The participation in the Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia Joint Civil Defense Exercise also points to a focus on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief capabilities, which are crucial for regional security and stability.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): The immediate future will likely see continued diplomatic efforts between Cambodia and Thailand, particularly with the third UNCLOS Conciliation Commission meeting scheduled for November 23-27 in Kuala Lumpur. The implementation of the agreed-upon confidence-building measures will be a key focus, with Thailand closely monitoring Cambodia's adherence. Tensions along the land border, especially around Preah Vihear, could flare up if accusations persist or if there are perceived breaches of the ceasefire. Cambodia will likely continue its robust crackdown on online scam operations, with further arrests and asset freezes expected as INTERPOL notices are processed. Military cooperation with Vietnam is expected to deepen, and preparations for the "Angkor Sentinel 2027" exercises with the US will continue.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The primary flashpoints remain the land border with Thailand, particularly around contested areas like Preah Vihear, and the overlapping claims area in the Gulf of Thailand. Any miscalculation or provocative action by either side in these areas could quickly escalate tensions. The effectiveness and impartiality of the ASEAN Observer Team will be crucial in mitigating these risks. The ongoing crackdown on online scams, while positive, could also lead to unforeseen security challenges if powerful criminal networks retaliate or attempt to destabilize operations.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the progress and outcomes of the UNCLOS conciliation talks and the Joint Boundary Commission meetings. The level of diplomatic representation between Cambodia and Thailand, and any steps towards its restoration, will be a significant barometer of bilateral relations. The frequency and nature of military exercises with both China and the US will indicate the evolving balance of Cambodia's strategic partnerships. Domestically, the continued success and scope of the anti-scam operations, particularly the apprehension of high-profile ringleaders, will be important.

Strategic recommendations: Cambodia should continue to prioritize diplomatic engagement and adherence to international law in resolving border disputes with Thailand, leveraging ASEAN's mediation efforts. Maintaining open communication channels, such as the naval hotline, is essential for de-escalation. Diversifying defense partnerships with both traditional allies like Vietnam and emerging partners like the US, while maintaining strong ties with China, will enhance Cambodia's security capabilities and strategic autonomy. Domestically, sustaining the momentum against online scam operations, with continued international cooperation, is vital for national security and reputation.

Sources

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